Race 1
The opener is a Maiden Special Weight going 1 1/2 miles. One horse stands out in my opinion as most of the field has shown little to no ability. I'm going with the #8 Empire Knight who has run second in both starts, took a big move forward last time out from a speed figure perspective and figures to handle both the turf and the distance.
Selections: 8
Race 2
The second race kicks off the early Pick 4 and is an Allowance race for horses that have never won twice (unless those wins earned a purse of $8,500 or less). The #5 Lucky Rave figures to be a strong favorite based on his blowout win last time versus weaker. In that race Lucky Rave earned a field best 95 Beyer Speed Figure. I'll definitely be using him but my top pick will offer more value. The only horse in the field with a win over the course is #3 Dipsy Drew. His recent form on dirt looks okay but prior to that he ran poorly on the Churchill Downs turf course so his odds should be in the 10/1 to 15/1 range.
Selections: 3-5
Race 3
The second Maiden Special Weight of the day is leg two of the early Pick 4. Morning line favorite #9 Bramley has run second three in her last three races at this level. Her speed figures are above par for this level and it looks like she might have found a weak enough group to get the job done. Beyond the favorite I also like #4 Honey Lake who has also run well at this level in her last four races. Two others that have a chance to win are #10 First Romance and #6 Renards Lapin, both of whom have run well at this level.
Selections: 9-4-10-6
Race 4
The fourth race is an Allowance race for horses that have never won twice (unless those wins earned a purse of $8,500 or less). Two horses in the field are stakes winners and they will be my top selections. #9 Tate's Landing won the Laurel Futurity last year and switches to the Graham Motion barn. The other stakes winner is #6 Ray's Away who won the Victoria over Woodbine's Polytrack last year. He won his first start this year in his turf debut and should move forward. Those two have the most upside but a couple of the seasoned horses can win this. #7 Strike the Note is the only horse with a win over the course and he has also run well in allowance races over the past few months. #4 Burning Bush is a head and a neck away from four straight wins. He ran well at this level last out and is turning back from a two turn route.
Selections: 9-6-7-4
Race 5
The final leg of the early Pick 4 is another Allowance race with the same conditions as race 2. Morning line favorite #3 Spun Silky looks to hard to beat in this race. She paired up lifetime best speed figures in her last two, which also happen to be the top two in the field. In case she misfires I'll also use #9 Lignite who appears to be the speed of the speed. She exits an overnight stakes at Saratoga in which she set the pace and faded late but today she might be able to clear the field early and take them all the way.
Selections: 3-9
Race 6
Race 6 kicks off the Pick 5 and is a full field of two year olds going 6 furlongs. If you read my last post you will remember that first time starters don't fair very well at Kentucky Downs. There are two horses with experience (after scratches) and they are the two I'm going with. #8 Manaus has finished third in his three turf attempts, the last two in stakes company. The drop in class might be enough to get him into the winner's circle. If not #1 Raging Market is the next most likely winner. He has run twice over Presque Isle Downs Tapeta surface and showed speed with the addition of blinkers last time. His breeding points to the turf as his sire After Market was a top class turf horse during his career.
Selections: 8-1
Race 7
The seventh is the first of three stakes races and is the first leg of the late Pick 4. #10 Soft Whisper is turning back in distance and is one for one at Kentucky Downs. The addition of blinkers mean she'll be close to the pace and with the stamina she has gained from her recent route races she should be tough. #11 Magical Moon exits an overnight stakes at Saratoga (the same race as Lignite) in which she finished second beaten a 1/2 length. She looks formidable and any improvement will make her tough. My third choice is #8 To My Valentine. She won her last race in dominating fashion in an entry level allowance race. This will be her third start off a layoff so further improvement is expected.
Selections: 10-11-8
Race 8
Race 8 is the second stakes of the day and the one noticeable characteristic of the race is a lack of pace. For that reason I'm going with #2 Dancing to Town who figures to set an uncontested pace. She's looking for her first stakes win and the favorable pace scenario could be the recipe for success. I also give a big chance to #12 Dame Marie who last ran fourth beaten just three lengths in the G3 Modesty. Beyond those two I'll also use #8 Drama Drama, who has a win over the course, #10 Nashindy who is unbeaten but makes her turf debut today and #3 Run a Risk who has run well in turf stakes and is on the improve.
Selections: 2-12-8-10-3
Race 9
The ninth is the final stakes of the day and the easiest of the three in my opinion. #3 Mystical Star is the class of the field and will be very tough to beat. As back-ups I'll use #10 Midnight Music who ran well in both her races in North America and #2 Left a Message who last out won a listed stakes at Woodbine.
Selections: 3-10-2
Race 10
The nightcap is $20K Claiming race and two standout in this race. My top choice is #6 Santo Gato who figures to be the pacesetter, which is very beneficial at the 6.5 furlong distance (Front runner won 4/5 races at this distance last year). The class of the field and most likely winner is #8 Bergerac. He has run twice at Kentucky Downs finishing first and second. He also has the best speed figures in the field and is dropping in class.
Selections: 6-8
Multi-race Betting Strategy
In the early Pick 4 I'll use my contenders as follows:
Race 2 - (A) 3,5
Race 3 - (A) 4,9 (B) 6,10
Race 4 - (A) 6,9 (B) 4,7
Race 5 - (A) 3,9
In the Pick 5 I'll use my contenders as follows:
Race 6 - (A) 1,8
Race 7 - (A) 8,10,11
Race 8 - (A) 2,12 (C) 3,8,10
Race 9 - (A) 3 (C) 2,10
Race 10 - (A) 6,8
In the late Pick 4 I'll use my contenders as follows:
Race 7 - (A) 8,10,11
Race 8 - (A) 2,12 (C) 3,8,10
Race 9 - (A) 3 (C) 2,10
Race 10 - (A) 6,8
Good luck on opening day at Kentucky Downs!
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