Race 1
The opener is a Maiden Claiming race going 1 mile and 70 yards. My top two selections are hard to separate but I'll give a slight edge to #3 Giacoslew because he has run okay in his four turf starts and he finished second in his only race over this course. Although Indiana Downs shippers didn't perform well on opening day (going 0/14 in 9 races) they did extremely well last year. #5 New Found King ships in from Indiana Downs and finished third beaten only a half length at this level last time in his first start on turf. Any improvement will make him tough to beat. Class droppers are always dangerous in Maiden Claiming races, especially when dropping out of Maiden Special Weight races. #12 Niedermeyer fits that profile and although he was not close in either start he fits on speed figures and the class relief should move him forward. Arlington Park shippers did well last year and on day 1 this year. Morning line favorite #9 Recurrent just finished second at this level at Arlington Park but his deep closing running style makes an underneath finish more likely than a win.
Selections: 3-5-12-9
Race 2
Race 2 is the start of the early Pick 4. It's a 6 furlong sprint for $12,500 Claimers. Extra consideration needs to be given to speed horses as that running style dominated day 1 of the meet and was the preferred running style in 2012. #8 Point to the Wild projects to be on or very close to the lead early. She finished second last out in a $10,000 Claiming race in his first start on turf. A forward move here will make her very tough to beat. If Point to the Wild doesn't make the lead #5 Gibes will. Gibes ran second last time in her turf debut but steps up in class today. If she can secure an uncontested lead she could take the field gate to wire. #2 Bandi's Girl drops in class of a win versus $14,000 Claimers and is turning back in distance. She has shown enough early speed to be in contention early. If you are looking for a long shot in the early Pick 4 look no further than #1A Apple Pandowdy. Her recent form is dreadful but she has a win and two seconds from three starts at Kentucky Downs.
Selections: 8-5-2-1A
Race 3
The second leg of the early Pick 4 is a Maiden Special Weight for two year old's going 6 furlongs. The race is loaded with second time starters and most of them showed early speed in their debuts. There could be a five or six horse battle up front early so I'm looking for a horse that has shown the ability to sit just off the pace and pass horses in the stretch. One horse fits the bill, #1 Raised on Robbery. In her debut she sat in midpack and rallied for second earning a field best 62 turf Beyer Speed Figure. Since speed does so well in sprints I have to include the horse that projects to be the speed of the speed, #7 Boom Boom Vroom. Trained by Wesley Ward and sporting a best of 61 workout following her debut behind subsequent G1 Spinaway winner Sweet Reason she has the potential to clear early and take the field a long way.
Selections: 1-7
Race 4
The fourth race is the third maiden race of the day. It's a $25,000 Maiden Claiming race for two year old's. The stats say to avoid first time starters at Kentucky Downs but in this case I'm going against the trend as those that have run have not done much running. There are three first time starters in the field but only one interests me. #8 Oromocto debuts for trainer Darrin Miller (4/19 with firsters, 2/5 with firsters in maiden claiming races). He has a decent series of works, has a little turf breeding and draws outside, which should help him avoid any trouble at the start. Of those that have started the only one that looks like a winner at this level is #1 Jojo's Gal. He debuted at Churchill Downs behind subsequent stakes winner Brazen Persuasion. The turf breeding is iffy but being trained by Wesley Ward means this one will be sent hard early.
Selections: 8-1
Race 5
The final leg of the early Pick 4 is a $12,500 Claiming race for horses that have never won three races. It's another 6 furlong affair so speed should be favored. #9 Krazy for Kaya wired the field in her previous race at Ellis Park earning a solid 73 Beyer Speed Figure. She is 2/4 in turf sprints and appears to have most upside as she has raced only 7 times. #5 Phyllis Ann has also shown early speed and is dropping in class from an entry level Allowance race. Her best puts her in the mix. #7 Miss County Clark might be up against it as she figures to race in midpack early but she is dropping in class and turning back in distance. #6 Majestique is moving up in class off a win and is turning back in distance after wiring the field.Selections: 9-5-7-6
Race 6
The sixth race kicks off the Pick 5 and is a Maiden Special Weight for two year old's at 6.5 furlongs. #9 Spring Again ran an even third in her debut at Del Mar. She has turf breeding and should move forward in her second start. #7 Zee Stone debuted at Keeneland in the spring finishing second. She showed early speed in that race and could be the pacesetter. Two others worth using are the other two with racing experience: #2 Reign and #3 Mexican Miss.
Selections: 9-7-2-3
Race 7
Race 7 kicks off the late Pick 4 and is an Allowance race for horses that have never won three times going 6 furlongs. The race goes through morning line favorite #8 Shrinking Violet. She returned off a seven month layoff to win an entry level Allowance race at Del Mar. In that race she earned a field best 95 Beyer Speed Figures, which is 12 points higher than the top fig of every other horse in the race. She has the preferred up close running style, is 1/1 at Kentucky Downs and should be very tough to beat. In case she doesn't fire I'll also use three other horses in the Pick 4 and Pick 5. #4 Little Nip has finished second or third in her last five starts at this level. #1 Spring Formal exits a win versus entry level Allowance company and is 3/6 in turf sprints. #6 Boss Barney's Babe is a pedigree play as she has best turf rating in the field.
Selections: 8-4-1-6
Race 8
The eighth is an entry level Allowance race going 6.5 furlongs. #10 Geothermal has a win and a second from two starts at Kentucky Downs. His recent mediocre finishes on the main track should enhance his price. #5 Agave Cat is a sneaky long shot pace play. He picks Rosie Napravnik and has a bullet work since his last race. If Rosie sends him and he clears the field early look out for box car payouts. #2 Cougar Ridge is racing for the first time in North America. The undulating course should be an advantage for him and he has back class having run second by a nose in a G3 stakes as a two year old. #9 Good Tickled finished a close second at this level last time behind opening day winner Expecting Cash.
Selections: 10-5-2-9
Race 9
The ninth race is a wide open Allowance race going 1 mile and 70 yards. A case could be made for just about every horse in the race. The most likely winner in my opinion is #11 Klisz who returned from a four month layoff with a decent fifth place finish. His best will win this and being lightly raced he has more upside than most. While Klisz is the most likely winner he is not my top choice. Although off the pace types are preferred in route races at Kentucky Downs front runners can win (as was the case on opening day). There appears to be a few that could set the pace but I'm betting that long shot #4 Hello Abraxon will get a clear lead and steal the race at huge odds. He is 2/3 on turf (both wins were gate to wire) and just worked a very good :47 at Laurel Park. Like I said you can make a case for most of the field but you can't use every horse in every race or you won't make very much money so I'll live or die with my top two.Selections: 4-11
Race 10
The final race of day 2 is a Maiden Claimer going 1 mile. #3 Cage Fighter has run well twice in Maiden Special Weight races and faces claimers for the first time. The top fig horse on the drop will be tough to beat. #6 Herecomethehawks also faces claimers for the first time but has not run well in his three starts. The positives for this horse are switching to Hall of Famer Gary Stevens and trainer Tom Proctor's above average stats with layoff horses and droppers into Maiden Claiming races. The likely pacesetter is #8 Red Roncho who has shown speed in both route races and adds blinkers today after a two month freshening.
Selections: 3-6-8
Betting Strategy
In race 1 I'll bet #3 Giacoslew at odds of 9/2 or higher.
In race 2 I'll use my contenders as follows in the early Pick 4:
Race 2 - (A) 2,5,8 (C) 1A
Race 3 - (A) 1 (B) 7
Race 4 - (A) 1,8
Race 5 - (A) 5,9 (B) 6,7
In race 5 I'll bet #9 Krazy for Kaya at odds of 5/1 or higher.
In race 6 I'll use my contenders as follows in the Pick 5:
Race 6 - (A) 7,9 (C) 2,3
Race 7 - (A) 8 (C) 1,4,6
Race 8 - (A) 2,5,9,10
Race 9 - (A) 4,11
Race 10 - (A) 3,6,8
In race 7 I'll use my contenders as follows in the late Pick 4:
Race 7 - (A) 8 (C) 1,4,6
Race 8 - (A) 2,5,9,10
Race 9 - (A) 4,11
Race 10 - (A) 3,6,8
In race 8 I'll bet #5 Agave Cat at odds of 10/1 or higher and #10 Geothermal at odds of 9/2 or higher.
In race 9 I'll bet #4 Hello Abraxon at odds of 15/1 or higher.
Good luck on day 2 of the Kentucky Downs meet and just a reminder that Saturday September 14th is the next racing day at Kentucky Downs.
Good Luck Lenny. Hope today was as profitable as Day 1.
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