A Look Back at Day 1 of the 2013 Kentucky Downs Meet

Opening day at Kentucky Downs was a great day of racing and, for me, a great day of betting.  All the pieces fell into place as my handicapping, in conjunction with the research I did, resulted in me having the winner in eight of the ten races.

Race 1

The first race was a maiden race in which I thought Empire Knight was a standout.  I was correct as Empire Knight raced just off the pace early and ran away late to win by four lengths at odds of 9/5.

Race 2

The second race was one of two races on the card that I missed completely.  My selections (Dipsy Drew and Lucky Rave) didn't do any running.  The winner Believe in Kitten was tough to have even after the race was run.  The horse had run twice on the turf or should I say was in two turf races as he didn't do any running in either race.  He had run okay in his last two on polytrack and he is trained by Mike Maker but I didn't envision any scenario in which he would win.

I bet the early Pick 4 for $1 on a caveman ticket (3,5/4,6,9,10/6,9/3,9) that cost $32.

Race 3

The third was another maiden race and the favorite Bramley looked tough to beat off three second place finishes at this level.  She was the only one of my contenders that didn't fire.  My second choice Honey Lake pressed the pace and held off a late challenge from my third choice First Romance.  My fourth choice Renard's Lapin finished third.

Race 4

The fourth race was the second of two races that I missed.  I thought Tate's Landing and Ray's Away were the two most likely winners as they were the only stakes winners in the field.  Both ran okay to finish fourth and third respectively and my third choice managed to finish second but the winner was not on my list of contenders.  Expecting Cash was coming in off two wins at Ellis Park but was moving up in class.  In retrospect he could have been used but I don't usually go five deep in a nine horse field.

Since I was out of the early Pick 4 and the Pick 5 didn't start until race 6 I bet a small Pick 3 (6,9/3,9/1,8) for action ($1 bet cost $8) but was out again after the first leg.

Race 5

Race 5 was the start of a six race winning streak.  I narrowed the field down to Spun Silky and Lignite.  The former looked best on paper but the latter looked to have a pace edge going a distance that favored speed last year.  Lignite went to the lead and never looked back while Spun Silky rallied to finish second.

I bet another Pick 3 (3,9/1,8/8,10,11) again for action ($1 bet cost $12) and for the first time I was alive after the first leg.

Race 6

The sixth race kicked off the Pick 5.  It was another maiden race but this time for two year old's.  I knew from my analysis of last years meet that first time starters didn't perform well at Kentucky Downs so I focused on the horses with experience.  Manaus had run well in stakes company at Monmouth Park and the class drop figured to move him forward.  Raging Market showed speed in his prior race and was running on the turf for the first time. His sire After Market was a top class turf horse so the surface switch figured to move him forward.  Raging Market didn't get the lead and ran evenly to finish fourth.  Manaus tracked the pacesetter and won comfortably at an overlaid 4/1.

I was 2/2 in the Pick 3 and I bet the Pick 5 as well.  I bet a $1 ticket using all my "A" contenders (1,8/8,10,11/2,12/3/6,8) and two $0.50 tickets substituting in my "C" contenders in the third leg (3,8,10) and fourth leg (2,10).  The total cost was $66 and I was alive on all three tickets after the first leg.

Race 7

Race 7 kicked off the late Pick 4 and was also the first of three stakes races.  I keyed in on three contenders: Soft Whisper, Magical Moon and To My Valentine.  Soft Whisper had a win over the track and was turning back from a route.  Magical Moon had just beaten Lignite (winner of Race 5)  at Saratoga.  To My Valentine had just dominated an allowance race but earned a speed figure that fit in this race.  To My Valentine and Magical Moon ran 1-2 all the way and Soft Whisper rallied for third.

I hit the Pick 3 starting in race 5, which returned $126.50 for $1.  I was 2/2 in the Pick 5 beating the post time favorite in both legs.  I bet the late Pick 4 with a $2 ticket using my "A" contenders (8,10,11/2,12/3/6,8) and $0.50 tickets substituting in my "C" contenders in the second leg (3,8,10) and the third leg (2,10).  The total cost was $45 and all three tickets were alive after the first leg.

Race 8

The eight was the second stakes this time at one mile.  Speed had been good all day and it had been okay last year but off the pace horses had won more often in middle distance races.  The only way I would use a speed horse was if the horse was a strong contender and projected to have a pace advantage.  Fortunately that was the case for Dancing to Town who wired the field at a generous 5/1.  My other contenders ran 3rd, 4th, 7th and 8th.

I bet Dancing to Town to win ($10 bet returned $63) and I was 3/3 in the Pick 5 with all "A's" and 2/2 in the Pick 4 with two "A's."

Race 9

The penultimate race of the day would decide if I had a profitable or unprofitable day.  I looked at the race for less than a minute and knew who my selection was and at the same time decided she would be my key in the Pick 5 and late Pick 4.  Mystical Star was the class of the field.  Prior to her most recent start in an overnight stakes at Saratoga she had run in nine consecutive graded stakes.  This was handicapping 101, bet the Class on the grass.  As insanity insurance I also used Left a Message and Midnight Music.  Mystical Star raced off the pace early but surged late to win the photo and put me in a great position.

No bets in this race but I was 4/4 in the Pick 5 and 3/3 in the Pick 4 with all "A's" in both.

Race 10

Going into the nightcap I felt confident.  I only used two horses and one looked like a sure thing on paper.  Bergerac laid over the field and had run first and second in two starts over the course.  He would be tough to beat.  My only hope of beating the favorite was Santo Gato.  He looked like the speed of the speed and with the track favoring speed in sprints just as it did last year he had a chance at an upset.

I checked the will pays for the Pick 4 and Pick 5.  If Bergerac won my return would be a little over $2,000.  If Santo Gato won it would be over $10,000.  I'm sure you know who I was rooting for.

The race played out exactly as I thought it would but the better horse prevailed.  Bergerac won comfortably by 3/4 of length and in the process guaranteed me a profitable meet.

The Pick 4 returned $821.20 for the $2 bet.  The Pick 5 returned $1,214.70 for the $1 bet plus I also collected 15 consolation 4/5's worth $10 each for total return of $1,364.70.

At the end of the day I was $2,156.40 in the black, not bad for three hours of research and one hour of handicapping the ten race card.

Takeaway's From Day 1

The winning bets were great but looking at how the races were won and where the winners came from, just as I did for the 2012 meet in preparation for the 2013 meet, is the most important thing.

Here's a summary of the takeaway's from day 1:

• Previous good form over the track is cause for upgrading a horse's chances
• Speed was dominant in sprints (5/5) as expected but was also favorable in routes and marathons
• As was the case in 2012 horses from Arlington Park won more than their fair share and ...
• Horses from Ellis Park won less than their fair share

Obviously the sample is small with just ten races in the books this year but most of what occurred reinforced the results from last year.  Favor speed in sprint races, give extra credit to horses that last raced at Arlington Park and discount the chances of horses that last raced at Ellis Park.

Day 2 of the 5 day meet is this Wednesday, September 11th.  There are ten races carded and the average field size (minus also eligibles) is 10.5 so get to work on handicapping the card and formulating your betting strategy.  I'll post my analysis sometime Tuesday and I'll update it Wednesday if there are any scratches that impact my selections.