The track did get some rain during the storm on Wednesday but it is unclear if it was enough to neutralize the speed bias. The early part of the card could answer that question so if you intend to bet the Pick 5 and late Pick 4 pay attention early and adjust accordingly.
My strategy for day 3 is to give a little extra credit to "E" type horses but not overlook or throw out a "P" or "S" horse that looks best. Here's a quick look at the ten race card including multi-race betting strategies and spot plays.
Race 1
I'm looking to the outside in the opener to #10 Redboard and #11 Alandtom. Both are dropping in class and Redboard figures to be forwardly placed, which gives him a slight edge. #6 Faithhope has two good races in three tries over the track and exits a convincing win versus easier.
Selections: 10-11-6
Race 2
#6 King Hugo stretches out to a mile for the first time. He has a second and a third in two turf sprints and should be on or near the lead early. #4 Poker Player ran okay in his debut earning a field best 61 Beyer Speed Figure. Any improvement makes him tough to beat. Three others are worth using as back-ups are #9 Mygalsal who was second in her lone turf race, #10 Broadway Missle who was ran well in both turf races and #7 Keeneland Kitten who is a second time starter for the always dangerous Mike Maker (although he is 0/11 at the meet).
Selections: 6-4-9-10-7
Race 3
The third looks like a two horse race to me. #11 Mongol Boss will take a lot of money and rightfully so as he looks best on paper but as mentioned above Mike Maker is 0/11 at the meet and has not had great success at Kentucky Downs in the past. I'll use Mongol Boss by my top selection is #2 Gun Battle who set the pace last time at a mile and now cuts back to 6.5 furlongs. His previous race was his first off a layoff, first on turf, first with blinkers and first with lasix. He ran the best race of his life and the turn back in distance should be enough to get him to the winner's circle.
Selections: 2-11
Race 4
#8 Vintage Strike and #7 Sandsarita look good but #3 Givemethreestepsmr looks like she might get a clear lead on what has been a speed favoring track at a big price. Those three are my keys in the early Pick 4 but I'll also use #2 Devious d'Oro and #5 Kipling's Joy.
Selections: 3-8-7-2-5
Race 5
Race 5 closes out the early Pick 4 and kicks off the stakes action. I'm leaning on the speed again with #5 Pocket Gift who looks like the fastest early. I'm also using #9 Lien on Kitten who was a dominating winner in her debut and cuts back to 7 furlongs here. I'll use #3 La Mejor Fiesta, #4 J J Julep and #7 Personal Diary as back-ups.
Selections: 5-9-3-4-7
Race 6
The sixth is the first leg of the Pick 5 and the one race where I have a very strong opinion. I'm leaning heavily on #2 School on a Hill who won her debut convincingly and was privately purchased and switched to the barn of Wayne Catalano. She will sit off the pace and should get a good setup as there is plenty of early speed signed on. She's my lone "A" but I'll also use #7 Here's Daddy, #8 Boji Moon, #6 Sweet Daddy and #5 Mister Special as back-ups.
Selections: 2-7-8-6-5
Race 7
The seventh kicks off the late Pick 4 and again I'm looking to the early speed. #6 Saint Leon should be on the lead early and will be closely tracked by #8 Ancil. They ran 2-1 last time and I'm looking to flip the tables this time. As back-ups I'll use #2 Good Lord who won this race last year and the filly #5 Sweet Cassiopeia.
Selections: 6-8-2-5
Race 8
Speed plus a win over the track? Sign me up. #4 Ol Army is 1/1 at Kentucky Downs and will be on or just off the early pace, which should be moderate. #10 Utley enters off a two race win streak but has been off since early spring. If the race falls apart he looks like the most likely winner. Two others worth using as back-ups are defending champ #7 Depeche Chat and the consistent closer #3 The Pizza Man.
Selections: 4-10-7-3
Race 9
Race 9 is the featured G3 Kentucky Cup Turf. The 1 1/2 mile race looks highly competitive with half the field looking like they have a shot at winning. I'm looking for boxcars here with what looks like the lone speed in the race. #2 Whatthecatdrugin has never won on turf and has never run 12 furlongs but he should set a pedestrian pace under veteran jockey Jon Court. If he can't stay the distance the two others I like best are #7 Side Road who last out ran second to subsequent G1 winner Hyper and #9 Suntracer who finished second in his last two at marathon distances. For back-ups I'll also use #4 Najjar and #8 Temeraine.
Selections: 2-7-9-4-8
Race 10
The final race of day 3 is a tough maiden race. I'm using five of them with #6 Rosee is Cozee and #8 Flak as my keys. The three back-ups are #4 Doctor Vickie Lynn, #10 More Than a Song and #11 Catbird Seat.
Selections: 6-8-4-10-11
Multi-Race Betting Strategy
In the early Pick 4 I'll use my contenders as follows:
Race 2 - (A) 4,6 (C) 7,9,10
Race 3 - (A) 2,11
Race 4 - (A) 3,7,8 (C) 2,5
Race 5 - (A) 5,9 (C) 3,4,7
In the Pick 5 I'll use my contenders as follows:
Race 6 - (A) 2 (C) 5,6,7,8
Race 7 - (A) 6,8 (C) 2,5
Race 8 - (A) 4,10 (C) 3,7
Race 9 - (A) 2,7,9 (C) 4,8
Race 10 - (A) 6,8 (C) 4,10,11
In the late Pick 4 I'll use my contenders as follows:
Race 7 - (A) 6,8 (C) 2,5
Race 8 - (A) 4,10 (C) 3,7
Race 9 - (A) 2,7,9 (C) 4,8
Race 10 - (A) 6,8 (C) 4,10,11
Spot Plays
The following are the horses I think are worth a Win wager if the price is right:
Race 3 - #2 at 9/1 or higher
Race 4 - #3 at 12/1 or higher
Race 6 - #2 at 5/2 or higher
Race 8 - #4 at 6/1 or higher
Race 9 - #2 at 12/1 or higher
My best bet of the day is #2 School on a Hill in Race 6.
Good luck!
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