You can rest easy knowing that you are not alone in trying to handle the most unique racetrack in North America. With sound handicapping and betting combined with a little insider knowledge the five day meet at Kentucky Downs can be one of the most profitable of the year.
In preparation for the Kentucky Downs meet I did my homework and looked at the results of the races run last year to see if there was anything that could be used to get a leg up on the competition. Following is what I learned from analyzing the 43 races run in 2012.
Distance and Running Styles
Firstly races are run at seven different distances:
- 6 furlongs
- 6.5 furlongs
- 7 furlongs
- 1 mile
- 1 mile and 70 yards
- 1 5/16 miles
- 1 1/2 miles
Races run from 6 furlongs to 1 mile and 70 yards are contested around one turn while races run at 1 5/16 miles and 1 1/2 miles are contested around two turns.
From a running style perspective races up to 7 furlongs are more friendly to front runners while races at 1 mile and beyond are more friendly to closers. Below are breakdowns by running style with the seven distances categorized into three groups:
- Sprints (6 to 7 furlongs)
- Routes (1 mile to 1 mile 70 yards)
- Marathons ( 1 5/16 miles to 1 1/2 miles)
The running styles are grouped as such:
- E = horse was on the lead or within 1 length of the lead at the first call
- P = horse was between 1 1/4 lengths and 3 lengths of the leader at the first call
- S = horse was more than 3 lengths behind the leader at the first call
The first call is at the 1/4 mile mark for races up to 7 furlongs and the 1/2 mile mark for races at 1 mile and beyond.
For your reference the numbers below are Number of Races: E style winners - P style winners - S style winners.
- Sprints: 18: 8-5-5
- Routes 18: 5-1-12
- Marathons 7: 1-2-4
Clearly it is easiest to wire the field in the shorter races. The lone E winner in the Marathon category was Ioya Bigtime in the five horse Kentucky Cup Turf in which he was able to set a pedestrian pace (1:18.39 for the first 6 furlongs).
Based on the data above my strategy will be to give a little extra credit to E style horses in Sprints but not to discount P and S style horses. In routes E style horses will be considered but the focus will be on S style horses. In Marathons I will only back E style horses if they are either lone speed or very strong contenders and I will focus primarily on off the pace horses (P and S style).
They Come From Far and Wide
With the generous purse structure there will be many shippers from around the country at the 2013 Kentucky Downs meet. Last year horses that raced last at 31 different tracks filled the fields at Kentucky Downs. This level of diversity among the horse population can make handicapping and betting the races very difficult. Fortunately I found a few nuggets of information that will make life a little easier this year.
First of all expect a large part of each race to be comprised of horses that last raced at Ellis Park. In 2012 45% of the runners from the 43 race meet last raced at Ellis Park. After Ellis Park the next most popular tracks that produced runners were Saratoga, Arlington Park, Mountaineer, Hoosier Park, River Downs, Churchill Downs, Presque Isle Downs and Indiana Downs.
There are many ways to look at the data regarding where horses last race but I honed in on one angle: how did the horses perform in relation to the number of opportunities available. This was, in my opinion, the best way to analyze the data because not every track was represented in every race and some tracks were represented by more than one horse in a race so looking only at the overall win percent is not an accurate gauge.
The percentages below were calculated by subtracting the average percent of the field for each track from the win opportunity percent for each track. In other words how many races could horses from each track have won, how many of those did they win and what percentage of the field did they make up?
(Note: Only tracks with at least 5 runners were included in the statistics below)
Exceeded Expectations
The following tracks exceeded expectations:
- Indiana Downs (+33%)
- Arlington Park (+21%)
- Monmouth Park (+12%)
- Kentucky Downs (+9%)
- Mountaineer (+8%)
Met Expectations
The following tracks met expectations:
- Saratoga (+1%)
- Hoosier Park (+1%)
- Churchill Downs (-2%)
- Presque Isle Downs (-2%)
Below Expectations
The following tracks performed below expectations:
- River Downs (-15%)
- Ellis Park (-14%)
- Turfway Park (-13%)
Other Notable Performances
It's worth mentioning that both Santa Anita Park and Tampa Bay Downs each had one horse start at Kentucky Downs in 2012 and both horses won.
First Time Starters
Kentucky Downs cards many maiden races during their short meet. Those races usually consist of one or more first time starters. After reviewing the 2012 data it's hard to have any confidence in backing a first time starter. Here are the stats:
- 27 first time starters raced in 10 maiden races
- Of those only one won, although two placed and three ran third
- Using the same formula as above produced an -18% for first time starters
It will be hard for me to bet a first time starter at Kentucky Downs so long as there are one or more experienced horses that have shown some ability.
Summing It All Up
When handicapping Kentucky Downs this year I will give extra credit to E style horses in Sprint races and S style horses in Routes and Marathons.
I'll upgrade horses from Indiana Downs, Arlington Park, Monmouth Park, Kentucky Downs and Mountaineer. I'll downgrade horses from River Downs, Ellis Park and Turfway Park.
I won't consider first time starters for the win position unless none of the experienced horses have shown any ability.
While the sample size above wasn't that great I think it paints a pretty good picture of what to expect this year at Kentucky Downs. If you have anything to add please do so in the comments below. I appreciate any insights into a track that I have only bet on a limited basis in the past and I'm sure everyone else reading this would appreciate it as well.
Lenny, thank you for your time, analysis and producing a very interesting read. If the patterns hold true one can certainly fine-tune their wagering with this info.
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