Kentucky Downs Day 4: Analysis and Betting Strategy for the Pick 4 and Pick 5

After some much needed ran last week the speed bias was neutralized on day 3 of the meet.  Speed still won but only when the horse was much the best.  With that in mind here's my selections and strategy for the final five races of day 4.

Race 9

Lone speed is always dangerous and #9 Pikestar fits the profile.  Pikestar is lightly raced and last out won an entry level allowance in gate to wire fashion on the turf.  #8 Moro Tap is dropping in class after running third in a listed stakes and sixth in a G3.  He will be far back early but his class could get him to the wire first.  #7 Klisz has back races that would win this race and is racing second time off a layoff so improvement is expected.  As back-ups I'll also use 2,3,4 and 5.

Selections: 9-8-7

Race 10

The tenth is for horses that have never won twice and I'm going with the class dropping #9 Seeking Treasure.  Seeking Treasure exits a listed stakes at Canterbury in which she earned the top last out Beyer Speed Figure.  For back-ups I'll use 7 and 11.

Selections: 9-11-7

Race 11

Race 11 is a marathon at 1 1/2 miles and I'm looking at the horses that have proven they can handle the distance.  My top choice has done that and is 1/1 at Kentucky Downs.  At 20/1 on the morning line #3 Coming Thru can light up the toteboard.  I'll also use #6 Mandola who has a win at 1 1/4 miles and #4 Bluegrass Summer who has a win at the distance and recently won going longer in a steeplechase race.

Selections: 3-6-4

Race 12

The twelfth looks like a two horse race on paper to me and my top selection is #10 Gamay Noir who was a dominating winner against entry level allowance company last out.  As a back-up I'll also use #8 Moonwalk who has some decent efforts against this level.

Selections: 10-8

Race 13

The finale is a bottom level claimer and I'm leaning on two horses.  #4 Alexander TheGreat is dropping slightly in class and should be tough to beat.  I'll also use #12 Soul of the Moon has the best last out figure and is third off the layoff.  For back-ups I'll use 5,6 and 9.

Betting Strategy

In the Pick 5 I'll use my contenders as follows:

R09 - (A) 7,8,9   (C) 2,3,4,5

R10 - (A) 9         (C) 7,11

R11 - (A) 3,4,6

R12 - (A) 10       (C) 8

R13 - (A) 4,12    (C) 5,6,9

In the late Pick 4 I'll use my contenders as follows:

R10 - (A) 9         (B) 7,11

R11 - (A) 3,4,6

R12 - (A) 10       (B) 8

R13 - (A) 4,12    (B) 5,6,9

If the odds are right I'll make win bets on the following horses:

R09 - # 9 at 12/1 or higher

R10 - # 9 at 5/1 or higher

R11 - # 3 at 15/1 or higher

R12 - #10 at 9/2 or higher

Good luck on day 4 of the 5 day meet.