Fives are Wild

The highlight of the fifth and final day of racing at Kentucky Downs this year is a Pick 5 carryover with a mandatory payout.  No one managed to have all five winners on day 4 so there is an $11,000 carryover into the final Pick 5 of the meet.  I expect the pool to be upwards of $50,000 with the carryover and mandatory payout so I'll definitely be dipping my toes in the water.

Race 9

The ninth race kicks off the aforementioned Pick 5.  It's a maiden race with a bunch of first time starters.  As mentioned before it usually pays to go with horses with a race or two under their belt in maiden races at Kentucky Downs so my top pick is #3 Yemanja.  Yemanja set the pace last time at Woodbine and held the lead into the stretch.  The cutback to six furlongs plus the positive running style (the track has been kinder to front runners this meet) make Yemanja a solid choice to take them all the way.  On the other hand, it's hard to go against any horse Wayne Catalano sends out as he is 7/10 at the meet.  Two of those wins were with first time starters (the only two to win at the meet) so I'm also using #2 Room Service.  For back-ups I'm using #7 Holiday Stroll, #8 Gold Magic and #9 Queen Boss.

Selections: 3-2-7-8-9

Race 10

Race 10 kicks off the late Pick 4 and is one of two two turn races in the sequence.  The safe pick on top is #1A Honey Lake, a last out winner over this trip but I'm not one for playing it safe so I'm looking for a boxcar payout with the lightly raced and undefeated #9 Breath.  Breath is 3/3 and has improved leaps and bounds from one start to the next.  This will be her turf debut and her breeding says she will handle it.  For back-ups I'll use #3 Bustle, # 5 Archtype and #6 Nora's Song.

Selections: 9-1A-3-5-6

Race 11

The least wide open race in the multi-race sequence is the eleventh.  To me it comes down to two horses: #4 Shrinking Violet and #11 Gator Zone.  I give the edge to the former because of her field best 96 Beyer Speed Figure earned in her last out win at Del Mar.  Gator Zone is dropping in class after two good efforts versus stakes company (although both were restricted to three year old's) but her lack of recency concerns me a little.

Selections: 4-11

Race 12

The penultimate race of the day is a tough non-winners of two lifetime allowance race.  I'm looking to the outside for my key horses and my top pick is #11 Geothermal who has won and placed in two starts over the Kentucky Downs course, which also happen to be her two best races from a speed figure perspective.  My other key horse is #9 Leadem in Ken who won with a big fig in his maiden breaking win two back but flopped last time at Saratoga.  A repeat of the maiden win or anything close would win this but the dull effort last time and the lack of works for a month following it are concerning.  For back-ups I'll use #1 Drink or Hold, #2 Batten the Hatches, #4 English Pound and #7 Sweetcarolinamoon.

Selections: 11-9-7-2-4-1

Race 13

The final race of the meet is another skull buster as half the field looks capable of winning and that's how I'm playing it.  Six contenders split into two groups.  The top three are #4 Flattermejim who drops in class after four races against non-claiming company, #1 Coturnix who is on a four race winning streak and #6 Bluegrass Bull who has won two of his last three and three of his last five with all three wins in races similar to this.  For back-ups I'll use #2 Because I Win, #8 Candy Train and #12 Forever Sure.

Selections: 4-1-6-12-2-8

Betting Strategy

The Pick 5 is where my attention will be as it's the most likely opportunity to make a decent score.  I'll use my contenders as follows:

R09   (A) 2,3 (C) 7,8,9

R10   (A) 1A,9 (C) 3,5,6

R11   (A) 4 (C) 11

R12   (A) 9,11 (C) 1,2,4,7

R13   (A) 1,4,6 (C) 2,8,12

I'll play the all "A" combination for $1.00 and the 4A/1C combinations for $0.50.

I can't pass up the final Pick 4 and I'll use my contenders as follows:

R10   (A) 1A,9 (C) 3,5,6

R11   (A) 4 (C) 11

R12   (A) 9,11 (C) 1,2,4,7

R13   (A) 1,4,6 (C) 2,8,12

I'll play the all "A" combination for $2.00 and the 3A/1C combinations for $0.50.

I'm also looking to a bet the following horses to win if they meet the minimum odds requirements below:

R10 - #9 Breath at 8/1 or higher

R12 - #11 Geothermal at 9/2 or higher

R13 - #4 Flattermejim at 6/1 or higher

Good luck and enjoy the final day of the 2013 meet at Kentucky Downs!