What's New at Kentucky Downs for 2014 & Opening Day Selections

It's hard to believe there is any way that Kentucky Downs can become more player friendly but that managed to do it for the 2014 meet.

Kentucky Downs already has the best (lowest) overall takeout rates in North America but they were not satisfied with that so they lowered the takeout rate on the Pick 5 to 14%.

The takeout rates for the 2014 meet are as follows:

Win/Place/Show - 16.00%
Exacta - 18.25%
Trifecta/Superfecta/Daily Double/Pick 3/Pick 4 - 19.00%
Pick 5 - 14.00%

Kentucky Downs will be racing five days this year:

Saturday September 6th
Wednesday September 10th
Saturday September 13th
Wednesday September 17th
Wednesday September 24th

You can look forward to large fields (10+ on average) and big pools as Kentucky Downs has had the highest growth rate in wagering handle of any track in North America for the past several years.

I plan to post my analysis and selections each of the five days so be sure to check back.

Opening Day Pick 5 & Late Pick 4 Analysis and Selections

Pick 5 Leg A

Race 6 - The first leg of the Pick 5 has a couple of scratches and leaves a field of 7.  My top pick is #9 Todge who comes in off back to back good efforts at Arlington Park, which in recent years has yielded more than it's fair share of winners.  As back-ups I'll use the two likely front runners (as the sprint races are won most often by speed horses) #4 Mio d'Oro and #6 Strike the Note.

Pick 5 Leg B / Pick 4 Leg A

Race 7 - The first of three stakes on opening day has a standout on paper in morning line favorite #2 Luck of the Kitten.  He has the preferred running style for this distance (front runner) and has earned the best TimeformUS speed figures.  The off odds will likely drift below the 5/2 morning line and for that reason I am taking a shot with #9 Czar.  Czar has only one race under his belt, a fast closing third in a maiden race at Ellis Park but he fits one of my favorite angles: the lone closer. He should sit in last early and make one big run late.

Pick 5 Leg C / Pick 4 Leg B

Race 8 - The second stakes of the day is the filly version of the previous race.  The most important factor in this race is the presence of trainer Wayne Catalano.  He won 10/15 in 2013 for a 67% strike rate.  He trains morning line long shot #9 Bella Ranger.  With those stats there is no way she goes off at 15/1.  More likely she will be under 5/1.  Fortunately for multi-race players she is hidden in the middle so all the money she takes will not be visible.  In addition to Bella Ranger I'll also include #8 So Cal, #3 Dark Rain, #1 To Be Determined and #6 Emmajestic.

Pick 5 Leg D / Pick 4 Leg C

Race 9 - The feature of opening day is the first running of the Dueling Grounds Derby featuring two horses that will take a ton of money.  The favorite is #8 Medal Count and the second choice is #3 Global View.  Both have big wins in their past but I do not like either in this spot.  The former looks best on polytrack and the latter looks best at shorter distances.  Instead I am going with #6 Woodfield Springs who ran a much improved race last time with blinkers on for the first time.  I'll also include #2 Can'thelpbelieving and #7 Captain Dixie, both of whom should appreciate the 1 5/16 mile distance.

Pick 5 Leg E / Pick 4 Leg D

Race 10 - The opening day card concludes with a mile and a half maiden race.  I am leaning towards the outside with my top selection being #9 Zol Zayne, who ran a good third last time at this distance off a three month layoff.  I will also include #8 Northeast Bound and #10 Wall Street Kitten.

Fives are Wild

The highlight of the fifth and final day of racing at Kentucky Downs this year is a Pick 5 carryover with a mandatory payout.  No one managed to have all five winners on day 4 so there is an $11,000 carryover into the final Pick 5 of the meet.  I expect the pool to be upwards of $50,000 with the carryover and mandatory payout so I'll definitely be dipping my toes in the water.

Race 9

The ninth race kicks off the aforementioned Pick 5.  It's a maiden race with a bunch of first time starters.  As mentioned before it usually pays to go with horses with a race or two under their belt in maiden races at Kentucky Downs so my top pick is #3 Yemanja.  Yemanja set the pace last time at Woodbine and held the lead into the stretch.  The cutback to six furlongs plus the positive running style (the track has been kinder to front runners this meet) make Yemanja a solid choice to take them all the way.  On the other hand, it's hard to go against any horse Wayne Catalano sends out as he is 7/10 at the meet.  Two of those wins were with first time starters (the only two to win at the meet) so I'm also using #2 Room Service.  For back-ups I'm using #7 Holiday Stroll, #8 Gold Magic and #9 Queen Boss.

Selections: 3-2-7-8-9

Race 10

Race 10 kicks off the late Pick 4 and is one of two two turn races in the sequence.  The safe pick on top is #1A Honey Lake, a last out winner over this trip but I'm not one for playing it safe so I'm looking for a boxcar payout with the lightly raced and undefeated #9 Breath.  Breath is 3/3 and has improved leaps and bounds from one start to the next.  This will be her turf debut and her breeding says she will handle it.  For back-ups I'll use #3 Bustle, # 5 Archtype and #6 Nora's Song.

Selections: 9-1A-3-5-6

Race 11

The least wide open race in the multi-race sequence is the eleventh.  To me it comes down to two horses: #4 Shrinking Violet and #11 Gator Zone.  I give the edge to the former because of her field best 96 Beyer Speed Figure earned in her last out win at Del Mar.  Gator Zone is dropping in class after two good efforts versus stakes company (although both were restricted to three year old's) but her lack of recency concerns me a little.

Selections: 4-11

Race 12

The penultimate race of the day is a tough non-winners of two lifetime allowance race.  I'm looking to the outside for my key horses and my top pick is #11 Geothermal who has won and placed in two starts over the Kentucky Downs course, which also happen to be her two best races from a speed figure perspective.  My other key horse is #9 Leadem in Ken who won with a big fig in his maiden breaking win two back but flopped last time at Saratoga.  A repeat of the maiden win or anything close would win this but the dull effort last time and the lack of works for a month following it are concerning.  For back-ups I'll use #1 Drink or Hold, #2 Batten the Hatches, #4 English Pound and #7 Sweetcarolinamoon.

Selections: 11-9-7-2-4-1

Race 13

The final race of the meet is another skull buster as half the field looks capable of winning and that's how I'm playing it.  Six contenders split into two groups.  The top three are #4 Flattermejim who drops in class after four races against non-claiming company, #1 Coturnix who is on a four race winning streak and #6 Bluegrass Bull who has won two of his last three and three of his last five with all three wins in races similar to this.  For back-ups I'll use #2 Because I Win, #8 Candy Train and #12 Forever Sure.

Selections: 4-1-6-12-2-8

Betting Strategy

The Pick 5 is where my attention will be as it's the most likely opportunity to make a decent score.  I'll use my contenders as follows:

R09   (A) 2,3 (C) 7,8,9

R10   (A) 1A,9 (C) 3,5,6

R11   (A) 4 (C) 11

R12   (A) 9,11 (C) 1,2,4,7

R13   (A) 1,4,6 (C) 2,8,12

I'll play the all "A" combination for $1.00 and the 4A/1C combinations for $0.50.

I can't pass up the final Pick 4 and I'll use my contenders as follows:

R10   (A) 1A,9 (C) 3,5,6

R11   (A) 4 (C) 11

R12   (A) 9,11 (C) 1,2,4,7

R13   (A) 1,4,6 (C) 2,8,12

I'll play the all "A" combination for $2.00 and the 3A/1C combinations for $0.50.

I'm also looking to a bet the following horses to win if they meet the minimum odds requirements below:

R10 - #9 Breath at 8/1 or higher

R12 - #11 Geothermal at 9/2 or higher

R13 - #4 Flattermejim at 6/1 or higher

Good luck and enjoy the final day of the 2013 meet at Kentucky Downs!

Kentucky Downs Day 4: Analysis and Betting Strategy for the Pick 4 and Pick 5

After some much needed ran last week the speed bias was neutralized on day 3 of the meet.  Speed still won but only when the horse was much the best.  With that in mind here's my selections and strategy for the final five races of day 4.

Race 9

Lone speed is always dangerous and #9 Pikestar fits the profile.  Pikestar is lightly raced and last out won an entry level allowance in gate to wire fashion on the turf.  #8 Moro Tap is dropping in class after running third in a listed stakes and sixth in a G3.  He will be far back early but his class could get him to the wire first.  #7 Klisz has back races that would win this race and is racing second time off a layoff so improvement is expected.  As back-ups I'll also use 2,3,4 and 5.

Selections: 9-8-7

Race 10

The tenth is for horses that have never won twice and I'm going with the class dropping #9 Seeking Treasure.  Seeking Treasure exits a listed stakes at Canterbury in which she earned the top last out Beyer Speed Figure.  For back-ups I'll use 7 and 11.

Selections: 9-11-7

Race 11

Race 11 is a marathon at 1 1/2 miles and I'm looking at the horses that have proven they can handle the distance.  My top choice has done that and is 1/1 at Kentucky Downs.  At 20/1 on the morning line #3 Coming Thru can light up the toteboard.  I'll also use #6 Mandola who has a win at 1 1/4 miles and #4 Bluegrass Summer who has a win at the distance and recently won going longer in a steeplechase race.

Selections: 3-6-4

Race 12

The twelfth looks like a two horse race on paper to me and my top selection is #10 Gamay Noir who was a dominating winner against entry level allowance company last out.  As a back-up I'll also use #8 Moonwalk who has some decent efforts against this level.

Selections: 10-8

Race 13

The finale is a bottom level claimer and I'm leaning on two horses.  #4 Alexander TheGreat is dropping slightly in class and should be tough to beat.  I'll also use #12 Soul of the Moon has the best last out figure and is third off the layoff.  For back-ups I'll use 5,6 and 9.

Betting Strategy

In the Pick 5 I'll use my contenders as follows:

R09 - (A) 7,8,9   (C) 2,3,4,5

R10 - (A) 9         (C) 7,11

R11 - (A) 3,4,6

R12 - (A) 10       (C) 8

R13 - (A) 4,12    (C) 5,6,9

In the late Pick 4 I'll use my contenders as follows:

R10 - (A) 9         (B) 7,11

R11 - (A) 3,4,6

R12 - (A) 10       (B) 8

R13 - (A) 4,12    (B) 5,6,9

If the odds are right I'll make win bets on the following horses:

R09 - # 9 at 12/1 or higher

R10 - # 9 at 5/1 or higher

R11 - # 3 at 15/1 or higher

R12 - #10 at 9/2 or higher

Good luck on day 4 of the 5 day meet.

Analysis and Selections for Day 3 of the Kentucky Downs Meet

Day 2 of the 2013 Kentucky Downs meet was cut short by a lightning storm that knocked out power at the track.  The four races that were run, however continued the trend of favoring speed.  Three of the four races were won gate to wire.  So far at the meet 14 races have been run with 11 won by "E" types (0 - 1 length behind at the first call), 1 has been won by a "P" type (1 1/4 - 3 lengths behind at the first call) and 2 have been won by "S" types (more than 3 lengths behind at the first call).

The track did get some rain during the storm on Wednesday but it is unclear if it was enough to neutralize the speed bias.  The early part of the card could answer that question so if you intend to bet the Pick 5 and late Pick 4 pay attention early and adjust accordingly.

My strategy for day 3 is to give a little extra credit to "E" type horses but not overlook or throw out a "P" or "S" horse that looks best.  Here's a quick look at the ten race card including multi-race betting strategies and spot plays.

Race 1

I'm looking to the outside in the opener to #10 Redboard and #11 Alandtom.  Both are dropping in class and Redboard figures to be forwardly placed, which gives him a slight edge.  #6 Faithhope has two good races in three tries over the track and exits a convincing win versus easier.

Selections: 10-11-6

Race 2

#6 King Hugo stretches out to a mile for the first time.  He has a second and a third in two turf sprints and should be on or near the lead early.  #4 Poker Player ran okay in his debut earning a field best 61 Beyer Speed Figure.  Any improvement makes him tough to beat.  Three others are worth using as back-ups are #9 Mygalsal who was second in her lone turf race, #10 Broadway Missle who was ran well in both turf races and #7 Keeneland Kitten who is a second time starter for the always dangerous Mike Maker (although he is 0/11 at the meet).

Selections: 6-4-9-10-7

Race 3

The third looks like a two horse race to me.  #11 Mongol Boss will take a lot of money and rightfully so as he looks best on paper but as mentioned above Mike Maker is 0/11 at the meet and has not had great success at Kentucky Downs in the past.  I'll use Mongol Boss by my top selection is #2 Gun Battle who set the pace last time at a mile and now cuts back to 6.5 furlongs.  His previous race was his first off a layoff, first on turf, first with blinkers and first with lasix.  He ran the best race of his life and the turn back in distance should be enough to get him to the winner's circle.

Selections: 2-11

Race 4

#8 Vintage Strike and #7 Sandsarita look good but #3 Givemethreestepsmr looks like she might get a clear lead on what has been a speed favoring track at a big price.  Those three are my keys in the early Pick 4 but I'll also use #2 Devious d'Oro and #5 Kipling's Joy.

Selections: 3-8-7-2-5

Race 5

Race 5 closes out the early Pick 4 and kicks off the stakes action.  I'm leaning on the speed again with #5 Pocket Gift who looks like the fastest early.  I'm also using #9 Lien on Kitten who was a dominating winner in her debut and cuts back to 7 furlongs here.  I'll use #3 La Mejor Fiesta, #4 J J Julep and #7 Personal Diary as back-ups.

Selections: 5-9-3-4-7

Race 6

The sixth is the first leg of the Pick 5 and the one race where I have a very strong opinion.  I'm leaning heavily on #2 School on a Hill who won her debut convincingly and was privately purchased and switched to the barn of Wayne Catalano.  She will sit off the pace and should get a good setup as there is plenty of early speed signed on.  She's my lone "A" but I'll also use  #7 Here's Daddy,  #8 Boji Moon, #6 Sweet Daddy and #5 Mister Special as back-ups.

Selections: 2-7-8-6-5

Race 7

The seventh kicks off the late Pick 4 and again I'm looking to the early speed.  #6 Saint Leon should be on the lead early and will be closely tracked by #8 Ancil.  They ran 2-1 last time and I'm looking to flip the tables this time.  As back-ups I'll use #2 Good Lord who won this race last year and the filly #5 Sweet Cassiopeia.

Selections: 6-8-2-5

Race 8

Speed plus a win over the track?  Sign me up.  #4 Ol Army is 1/1 at Kentucky Downs and will be on or just off the early pace, which should be moderate.  #10 Utley enters off a two race win streak but has been off since early spring.  If the race falls apart he looks like the most likely winner.  Two others worth using as back-ups are defending champ #7 Depeche Chat and the consistent closer #3 The Pizza Man.

Selections: 4-10-7-3

Race 9

Race 9 is the featured G3 Kentucky Cup Turf.  The 1 1/2 mile race looks highly competitive with half the field looking like they have a shot at winning.  I'm looking for boxcars here with what looks like the lone speed in the race.  #2 Whatthecatdrugin has never won on turf and has never run 12 furlongs but he should set a pedestrian pace under veteran jockey Jon Court.  If he can't stay the distance the two others I like best are #7 Side Road who last out ran second to subsequent G1 winner Hyper and #9 Suntracer who finished second in his last two at marathon distances.  For back-ups I'll also use #4 Najjar and #8 Temeraine.

Selections: 2-7-9-4-8

Race 10

The final race of day 3 is a tough maiden race.  I'm using five of them with #6 Rosee is Cozee and #8 Flak as my keys.  The three back-ups are #4 Doctor Vickie Lynn, #10 More Than a Song and #11 Catbird Seat.

Selections: 6-8-4-10-11

Multi-Race Betting Strategy

In the early Pick 4 I'll use my contenders as follows:

Race 2 - (A) 4,6         (C) 7,9,10

Race 3 - (A) 2,11

Race 4 - (A) 3,7,8      (C) 2,5

Race 5 - (A) 5,9         (C) 3,4,7

In the Pick 5 I'll use my contenders as follows:

Race 6 -   (A) 2        (C) 5,6,7,8

Race 7 -   (A) 6,8            (C) 2,5

Race 8 -   (A) 4,10          (C) 3,7 

Race 9 -   (A) 2,7,9         (C) 4,8

Race 10 - (A) 6,8        (C) 4,10,11

In the late Pick 4 I'll use my contenders as follows:

Race 7 -   (A) 6,8            (C) 2,5

Race 8 -   (A) 4,10          (C) 3,7 

Race 9 -   (A) 2,7,9         (C) 4,8

Race 10 - (A) 6,8        (C) 4,10,11

Spot Plays

The following are the horses I think are worth a Win wager if the price is right:

Race 3 - #2 at 9/1 or higher

Race 4 - #3 at 12/1 or higher

Race 6 - #2 at 5/2 or higher

Race 8 - #4 at 6/1 or higher

Race 9 - #2 at 12/1 or higher

My best bet of the day is #2 School on a Hill in Race 6.

Good luck!

Analysis and Selections for Kentucky Downs 9-11-13

Day 2 of the 5 day 2013 Kentucky Downs meet consists of 10 races with an average field size of 10.5.  The same wagering menu as day 1 is on tap and my focus will be on the two Pick 4's and the Pick 5 along with a few win bets if the odds are right.

Race 1

The opener is a Maiden Claiming race going 1 mile and 70 yards.  My top two selections are hard to separate but I'll give a slight edge to #3 Giacoslew because he has run okay in his four turf starts and he finished second in his only race over this course.  Although Indiana Downs shippers didn't perform well on opening day (going 0/14 in 9 races) they did extremely well last year.  #5 New Found King ships in from Indiana Downs and finished third beaten only a half length at this level last time in his first start on turf.  Any improvement will make him tough to beat.  Class droppers are always dangerous in Maiden Claiming races, especially when dropping out of Maiden Special Weight races.  #12 Niedermeyer fits that profile and although he was not close in either start he fits on speed figures and the class relief should move him forward.  Arlington Park shippers did well last year and on day 1 this year.  Morning line favorite #9 Recurrent just finished second at this level at Arlington Park but his deep closing running style makes an underneath finish more likely than a win.

Selections: 3-5-12-9

Race 2

Race 2 is the start of the early Pick 4.  It's a 6 furlong sprint for $12,500 Claimers.  Extra consideration needs to be given to speed horses as that running style dominated day 1 of the meet and was the preferred running style in 2012.  #8 Point to the Wild projects to be on or very close to the lead early.  She finished second last out in a $10,000 Claiming race in his first start on turf.  A forward move here will make her very tough to beat.  If Point to the Wild doesn't make the lead #5 Gibes will.  Gibes ran second last time in her turf debut but steps up in class today.  If she can secure an uncontested lead she could take the field gate to wire.  #2 Bandi's Girl drops in class of a win versus $14,000 Claimers and is turning back in distance.  She has shown enough early speed to be in contention early.  If you are looking for a long shot in the early Pick 4 look no further than #1A Apple Pandowdy.  Her recent form is dreadful but she has a win and two seconds from three starts at Kentucky Downs.

Selections: 8-5-2-1A

Race 3

The second leg of the early Pick 4 is a Maiden Special Weight for two year old's going 6 furlongs.  The race is loaded with second time starters and most of them showed early speed in their debuts.  There could be a five or six horse battle up front early so I'm looking for a horse that has shown the ability to sit just off the pace and pass horses in the stretch.  One horse fits the bill, #1 Raised on Robbery.  In her debut she sat in midpack and rallied for second earning a field best 62 turf Beyer Speed Figure.  Since speed does so well in sprints I have to include the horse that projects to be the speed of the speed, #7 Boom Boom Vroom.  Trained by Wesley Ward and sporting a best of 61 workout following her debut behind subsequent G1 Spinaway winner Sweet Reason she has the potential to clear early and take the field a long way.

Selections: 1-7

Race 4

The fourth race is the third maiden race of the day.  It's a $25,000 Maiden Claiming race for two year old's. The stats say to avoid first time starters at Kentucky Downs but in this case I'm going against the trend as those that have run have not done much running.  There are three first time starters in the field but only one interests me.  #8 Oromocto debuts for trainer Darrin Miller (4/19 with firsters, 2/5 with firsters in maiden claiming races).  He has a decent series of works, has a little turf breeding and draws outside, which should help him avoid any trouble at the start.  Of those that have started the only one that looks like a winner at this level is #1 Jojo's Gal.  He debuted at Churchill Downs behind subsequent stakes winner Brazen Persuasion. The turf breeding is iffy but being trained by Wesley Ward means this one will be sent hard early.

Selections: 8-1

Race 5

The final leg of the early Pick 4 is a $12,500 Claiming race for horses that have never won three races.  It's another 6 furlong affair so speed should be favored.  #9 Krazy for Kaya wired the field in her previous race at Ellis Park earning a solid 73 Beyer Speed Figure.  She is 2/4 in turf sprints and appears to have most upside as she has raced only 7 times.  #5 Phyllis Ann has also shown early speed and is dropping in class from an entry level Allowance race.  Her best puts her in the mix.  #7 Miss County Clark might be up against it as she figures to race in midpack early but she is dropping in class and turning back in distance.  #6 Majestique is moving up in class off a win and is turning back in distance after wiring the field.

Selections: 9-5-7-6

Race 6

The sixth race kicks off the Pick 5 and is a Maiden Special Weight for two year old's at 6.5 furlongs.  #9 Spring Again ran an even third in her debut at Del Mar.  She has turf breeding and should move forward in her second start.  #7 Zee Stone debuted at Keeneland in the spring finishing second.  She showed early speed in that race and could be the pacesetter.  Two others worth using are the other two with racing experience: #2 Reign and #3 Mexican Miss.

Selections: 9-7-2-3

Race 7

Race 7 kicks off the late Pick 4 and is an Allowance race for horses that have never won three times going 6 furlongs.  The race goes through morning line favorite #8 Shrinking Violet.  She returned off a seven month layoff to win an entry level Allowance race at Del Mar.  In that race she earned a field best 95 Beyer Speed Figures, which is 12 points higher than the top fig of every other horse in the race.  She has the preferred up close running style, is 1/1 at Kentucky Downs and should be very tough to beat.  In case she doesn't fire I'll also use three other horses in the Pick 4 and Pick 5.  #4 Little Nip has finished second or third in her last five starts at this level.  #1 Spring Formal exits a win versus entry level Allowance company and is 3/6 in turf sprints.  #6 Boss Barney's Babe is a pedigree play as she has best turf rating in the field.

Selections: 8-4-1-6

Race 8

The eighth is an entry level Allowance race going 6.5 furlongs.  #10 Geothermal has a win and a second from two starts at Kentucky Downs.  His recent mediocre finishes on the main track should enhance his price.  #5 Agave Cat is a sneaky long shot pace play.  He picks Rosie Napravnik and has a bullet work since his last race.  If Rosie sends him and he clears the field early look out for box car payouts.  #2 Cougar Ridge is racing for the first time in North America.  The undulating course should be an advantage for him and he has back class having run second by a nose in a G3 stakes as a two year old. #9 Good Tickled finished a close second at this level last time behind opening day winner Expecting Cash.

Selections: 10-5-2-9

Race 9

The ninth race is a wide open Allowance race going 1 mile and 70 yards.  A case could be made for just about every horse in the race.  The most likely winner in my opinion is #11 Klisz who returned from a four month layoff with a decent fifth place finish.  His best will win this and being lightly raced he has more upside than most.  While Klisz is the most likely winner he is not my top choice.  Although off the pace types are preferred in route races at Kentucky Downs front runners can win (as was the case on opening day).  There appears to be a few that could set the pace but I'm betting that long shot #4 Hello Abraxon will get a clear lead and steal the race at huge odds.  He is 2/3 on turf (both wins were gate to wire) and just worked a very good :47 at Laurel Park.  Like I said you can make a case for most of the field but you can't use every horse in every race or you won't make very much money so I'll live or die with my top two.

Selections: 4-11

Race 10

The final race of day 2 is a Maiden Claimer going 1 mile.  #3 Cage Fighter has run well twice in Maiden Special Weight races and faces claimers for the first time.  The top fig horse on the drop will be tough to beat.  #6 Herecomethehawks also faces claimers for the first time but has not run well in his three starts.  The positives for this horse are switching to Hall of Famer Gary Stevens and trainer Tom Proctor's above average stats with layoff horses and droppers into Maiden Claiming races.  The likely pacesetter is #8 Red Roncho who has shown speed in both route races and adds blinkers today after a two month freshening.

Selections: 3-6-8

Betting Strategy

In race 1 I'll bet #3 Giacoslew at odds of 9/2 or higher.

In race 2 I'll use my contenders as follows in the early Pick 4:

Race 2 - (A) 2,5,8             (C) 1A

Race 3 - (A) 1       (B) 7

Race 4 - (A) 1,8

Race 5 - (A) 5,9    (B) 6,7

In race 5 I'll bet #9 Krazy for Kaya at odds of 5/1 or higher.

In race 6 I'll use my contenders as follows in the Pick 5:

Race 6 - (A) 7,9             (C) 2,3

Race 7 - (A) 8                (C) 1,4,6

Race 8 - (A) 2,5,9,10

Race 9 - (A) 4,11

Race 10 - (A) 3,6,8

In race 7 I'll use my contenders as follows in the late Pick 4:

Race 7 - (A) 8                (C) 1,4,6

Race 8 - (A) 2,5,9,10

Race 9 - (A) 4,11

Race 10 - (A) 3,6,8

In race 8 I'll bet #5 Agave Cat at odds of 10/1 or higher and #10 Geothermal at odds of 9/2 or higher.

In race 9 I'll bet #4 Hello Abraxon at odds of 15/1 or higher.

Good luck on day 2 of the Kentucky Downs meet and just a reminder that Saturday September 14th is the next racing day at Kentucky Downs.

A Look Back at Day 1 of the 2013 Kentucky Downs Meet

Opening day at Kentucky Downs was a great day of racing and, for me, a great day of betting.  All the pieces fell into place as my handicapping, in conjunction with the research I did, resulted in me having the winner in eight of the ten races.

Race 1

The first race was a maiden race in which I thought Empire Knight was a standout.  I was correct as Empire Knight raced just off the pace early and ran away late to win by four lengths at odds of 9/5.

Race 2

The second race was one of two races on the card that I missed completely.  My selections (Dipsy Drew and Lucky Rave) didn't do any running.  The winner Believe in Kitten was tough to have even after the race was run.  The horse had run twice on the turf or should I say was in two turf races as he didn't do any running in either race.  He had run okay in his last two on polytrack and he is trained by Mike Maker but I didn't envision any scenario in which he would win.

I bet the early Pick 4 for $1 on a caveman ticket (3,5/4,6,9,10/6,9/3,9) that cost $32.

Race 3

The third was another maiden race and the favorite Bramley looked tough to beat off three second place finishes at this level.  She was the only one of my contenders that didn't fire.  My second choice Honey Lake pressed the pace and held off a late challenge from my third choice First Romance.  My fourth choice Renard's Lapin finished third.

Race 4

The fourth race was the second of two races that I missed.  I thought Tate's Landing and Ray's Away were the two most likely winners as they were the only stakes winners in the field.  Both ran okay to finish fourth and third respectively and my third choice managed to finish second but the winner was not on my list of contenders.  Expecting Cash was coming in off two wins at Ellis Park but was moving up in class.  In retrospect he could have been used but I don't usually go five deep in a nine horse field.

Since I was out of the early Pick 4 and the Pick 5 didn't start until race 6 I bet a small Pick 3 (6,9/3,9/1,8) for action ($1 bet cost $8) but was out again after the first leg.

Race 5

Race 5 was the start of a six race winning streak.  I narrowed the field down to Spun Silky and Lignite.  The former looked best on paper but the latter looked to have a pace edge going a distance that favored speed last year.  Lignite went to the lead and never looked back while Spun Silky rallied to finish second.

I bet another Pick 3 (3,9/1,8/8,10,11) again for action ($1 bet cost $12) and for the first time I was alive after the first leg.

Race 6

The sixth race kicked off the Pick 5.  It was another maiden race but this time for two year old's.  I knew from my analysis of last years meet that first time starters didn't perform well at Kentucky Downs so I focused on the horses with experience.  Manaus had run well in stakes company at Monmouth Park and the class drop figured to move him forward.  Raging Market showed speed in his prior race and was running on the turf for the first time. His sire After Market was a top class turf horse so the surface switch figured to move him forward.  Raging Market didn't get the lead and ran evenly to finish fourth.  Manaus tracked the pacesetter and won comfortably at an overlaid 4/1.

I was 2/2 in the Pick 3 and I bet the Pick 5 as well.  I bet a $1 ticket using all my "A" contenders (1,8/8,10,11/2,12/3/6,8) and two $0.50 tickets substituting in my "C" contenders in the third leg (3,8,10) and fourth leg (2,10).  The total cost was $66 and I was alive on all three tickets after the first leg.

Race 7

Race 7 kicked off the late Pick 4 and was also the first of three stakes races.  I keyed in on three contenders: Soft Whisper, Magical Moon and To My Valentine.  Soft Whisper had a win over the track and was turning back from a route.  Magical Moon had just beaten Lignite (winner of Race 5)  at Saratoga.  To My Valentine had just dominated an allowance race but earned a speed figure that fit in this race.  To My Valentine and Magical Moon ran 1-2 all the way and Soft Whisper rallied for third.

I hit the Pick 3 starting in race 5, which returned $126.50 for $1.  I was 2/2 in the Pick 5 beating the post time favorite in both legs.  I bet the late Pick 4 with a $2 ticket using my "A" contenders (8,10,11/2,12/3/6,8) and $0.50 tickets substituting in my "C" contenders in the second leg (3,8,10) and the third leg (2,10).  The total cost was $45 and all three tickets were alive after the first leg.

Race 8

The eight was the second stakes this time at one mile.  Speed had been good all day and it had been okay last year but off the pace horses had won more often in middle distance races.  The only way I would use a speed horse was if the horse was a strong contender and projected to have a pace advantage.  Fortunately that was the case for Dancing to Town who wired the field at a generous 5/1.  My other contenders ran 3rd, 4th, 7th and 8th.

I bet Dancing to Town to win ($10 bet returned $63) and I was 3/3 in the Pick 5 with all "A's" and 2/2 in the Pick 4 with two "A's."

Race 9

The penultimate race of the day would decide if I had a profitable or unprofitable day.  I looked at the race for less than a minute and knew who my selection was and at the same time decided she would be my key in the Pick 5 and late Pick 4.  Mystical Star was the class of the field.  Prior to her most recent start in an overnight stakes at Saratoga she had run in nine consecutive graded stakes.  This was handicapping 101, bet the Class on the grass.  As insanity insurance I also used Left a Message and Midnight Music.  Mystical Star raced off the pace early but surged late to win the photo and put me in a great position.

No bets in this race but I was 4/4 in the Pick 5 and 3/3 in the Pick 4 with all "A's" in both.

Race 10

Going into the nightcap I felt confident.  I only used two horses and one looked like a sure thing on paper.  Bergerac laid over the field and had run first and second in two starts over the course.  He would be tough to beat.  My only hope of beating the favorite was Santo Gato.  He looked like the speed of the speed and with the track favoring speed in sprints just as it did last year he had a chance at an upset.

I checked the will pays for the Pick 4 and Pick 5.  If Bergerac won my return would be a little over $2,000.  If Santo Gato won it would be over $10,000.  I'm sure you know who I was rooting for.

The race played out exactly as I thought it would but the better horse prevailed.  Bergerac won comfortably by 3/4 of length and in the process guaranteed me a profitable meet.

The Pick 4 returned $821.20 for the $2 bet.  The Pick 5 returned $1,214.70 for the $1 bet plus I also collected 15 consolation 4/5's worth $10 each for total return of $1,364.70.

At the end of the day I was $2,156.40 in the black, not bad for three hours of research and one hour of handicapping the ten race card.

Takeaway's From Day 1

The winning bets were great but looking at how the races were won and where the winners came from, just as I did for the 2012 meet in preparation for the 2013 meet, is the most important thing.

Here's a summary of the takeaway's from day 1:

• Previous good form over the track is cause for upgrading a horse's chances
• Speed was dominant in sprints (5/5) as expected but was also favorable in routes and marathons
• As was the case in 2012 horses from Arlington Park won more than their fair share and ...
• Horses from Ellis Park won less than their fair share

Obviously the sample is small with just ten races in the books this year but most of what occurred reinforced the results from last year.  Favor speed in sprint races, give extra credit to horses that last raced at Arlington Park and discount the chances of horses that last raced at Ellis Park.

Day 2 of the 5 day meet is this Wednesday, September 11th.  There are ten races carded and the average field size (minus also eligibles) is 10.5 so get to work on handicapping the card and formulating your betting strategy.  I'll post my analysis sometime Tuesday and I'll update it Wednesday if there are any scratches that impact my selections.

Analysis and Selections for Kentucky Downs 9-7-13

Today is the first of five race days at Kentucky Downs.  The turf is firm.

Race 1

The opener is a Maiden Special Weight going 1 1/2 miles.  One horse stands out in my opinion as most of the field has shown little to no ability.  I'm going with the #8 Empire Knight who has run second in both starts, took a big move forward last time out from a speed figure perspective and figures to handle both the turf and the distance.

Selections: 8

Race 2

The second race kicks off the early Pick 4 and is an Allowance race for horses that have never won twice (unless those wins earned a purse of $8,500 or less).  The #5 Lucky Rave figures to be a strong favorite based on his blowout win last time versus weaker.  In that race Lucky Rave earned a field best 95 Beyer Speed Figure.  I'll definitely be using him but my top pick will offer more value.  The only horse in the field with a win over the course is #3 Dipsy Drew.  His recent form on dirt looks okay but prior to that he ran poorly on the Churchill Downs turf course so his odds should be in the 10/1 to 15/1 range.

Selections: 3-5

Race 3

The second Maiden Special Weight of the day is leg two of the early Pick 4.  Morning line favorite #9 Bramley has run second three in her last three races at this level.  Her speed figures are above par for this level and it looks like she might have found a weak enough group to get the job done.  Beyond the favorite I also like #4 Honey Lake who has also run well at this level in her last four races.  Two others that have a chance to win are #10 First Romance and #6 Renards Lapin, both of whom have run well at this level.

Selections: 9-4-10-6

Race 4

The fourth race is an Allowance race for horses that have never won twice (unless those wins earned a purse of $8,500 or less).  Two horses in the field are stakes winners and they will be my top selections.  #9 Tate's Landing won the Laurel Futurity last year and switches to the Graham Motion barn.  The other stakes winner is #6 Ray's Away who won the Victoria over Woodbine's Polytrack last year.  He won his first start this year in his turf debut and should move forward.  Those two have the most upside but a couple of the seasoned horses can win this.  #7 Strike the Note is the only horse with a win over the course and he has also run well in allowance races over the past few months.  #4 Burning Bush is a head and a neck away from four straight wins.  He ran well at this level last out and is turning back from a two turn route.

Selections: 9-6-7-4

Race 5

The final leg of the early Pick 4 is another Allowance race with the same conditions as race 2.  Morning line favorite #3 Spun Silky looks to hard to beat in this race.  She paired up lifetime best speed figures in her last two, which also happen to be the top two in the field.  In case she misfires I'll also use #9 Lignite who appears to be the speed of the speed.  She exits an overnight stakes at Saratoga in which she set the pace and faded late but today she might be able to clear the field early and take them all the way.

Selections: 3-9

Race 6

Race 6 kicks off the Pick 5 and is a full field of two year olds going 6 furlongs.  If you read my last post you will remember that first time starters don't fair very well at Kentucky Downs.  There are two horses with experience (after scratches) and they are the two I'm going with.  #8 Manaus has finished third in his three turf attempts, the last two in stakes company.  The drop in class might be enough to get him into the winner's circle.  If not #1 Raging Market is the next most likely winner.  He has run twice over Presque Isle Downs Tapeta surface and showed speed with the addition of blinkers last time.  His breeding points to the turf as his sire After Market was a top class turf horse during his career.

Selections: 8-1

Race 7

The seventh is the first of three stakes races and is the first leg of the late Pick 4.  #10 Soft Whisper is turning back in distance and is one for one at Kentucky Downs.  The addition of blinkers mean she'll be close to the pace and with the stamina she has gained from her recent route races she should be tough.  #11 Magical Moon exits an overnight stakes at Saratoga (the same race as Lignite) in which she finished second beaten a 1/2 length.  She looks formidable and any improvement will make her tough.  My third choice is #8 To My Valentine.  She won her last race in dominating fashion in an entry level allowance race.  This will be her third start off a layoff so further improvement is expected.

Selections: 10-11-8

Race 8

Race 8 is the second stakes of the day and the one noticeable characteristic of the race is a lack of pace.  For that reason I'm going with #2 Dancing to Town who figures to set an uncontested pace.  She's looking for her first stakes win and the favorable pace scenario could be the recipe for success.  I also give a big chance to #12 Dame Marie who last ran fourth beaten just three lengths in the G3 Modesty.  Beyond those two I'll also use #8 Drama Drama, who has a win over the course, #10 Nashindy who is unbeaten but makes her turf debut today and #3 Run a Risk who has run well in turf stakes and is on the improve.

Selections: 2-12-8-10-3

Race 9

The ninth is the final stakes of the day and the easiest of the three in my opinion.  #3 Mystical Star is the class of the field and will be very tough to beat.  As back-ups I'll use #10 Midnight Music who ran well in both her races in North America and #2 Left a Message who last out won a listed stakes at Woodbine.

Selections: 3-10-2

Race 10

The nightcap is $20K Claiming race and two standout in this race.  My top choice is #6 Santo Gato who figures to be the pacesetter, which is very beneficial at the 6.5 furlong distance (Front runner won 4/5 races at this distance last year).  The class of the field and most likely winner is #8 Bergerac.  He has run twice at Kentucky Downs finishing first and second.  He also has the best speed figures in the field and is dropping in class.

Selections: 6-8

Multi-race Betting Strategy

In the early Pick 4 I'll use my contenders as follows:

Race 2 - (A) 3,5

Race 3 - (A) 4,9 (B) 6,10

Race 4 - (A) 6,9 (B) 4,7

Race 5 - (A) 3,9

In the Pick 5 I'll use my contenders as follows:

Race 6 - (A) 1,8

Race 7 - (A) 8,10,11

Race 8 - (A) 2,12       (C) 3,8,10

Race 9 - (A) 3            (C) 2,10

Race 10 - (A) 6,8

In the late Pick 4 I'll use my contenders as follows:

Race 7 - (A) 8,10,11

Race 8 - (A) 2,12       (C) 3,8,10

Race 9 - (A) 3            (C) 2,10

Race 10 - (A) 6,8

Good luck on opening day at Kentucky Downs!