It's hard to believe there is any way that Kentucky Downs can become more player friendly but that managed to do it for the 2014 meet.
Kentucky Downs already has the best (lowest) overall takeout rates in North America but they were not satisfied with that so they lowered the takeout rate on the Pick 5 to 14%.
The takeout rates for the 2014 meet are as follows:
Win/Place/Show - 16.00%
Exacta - 18.25%
Trifecta/Superfecta/Daily Double/Pick 3/Pick 4 - 19.00%
Pick 5 - 14.00%
Kentucky Downs will be racing five days this year:
Saturday September 6th
Wednesday September 10th
Saturday September 13th
Wednesday September 17th
Wednesday September 24th
You can look forward to large fields (10+ on average) and big pools as Kentucky Downs has had the highest growth rate in wagering handle of any track in North America for the past several years.
I plan to post my analysis and selections each of the five days so be sure to check back.
Opening Day Pick 5 & Late Pick 4 Analysis and Selections
Pick 5 Leg A
Race 6 - The first leg of the Pick 5 has a couple of scratches and leaves a field of 7. My top pick is #9 Todge who comes in off back to back good efforts at Arlington Park, which in recent years has yielded more than it's fair share of winners. As back-ups I'll use the two likely front runners (as the sprint races are won most often by speed horses) #4 Mio d'Oro and #6 Strike the Note.
Pick 5 Leg B / Pick 4 Leg A
Race 7 - The first of three stakes on opening day has a standout on paper in morning line favorite #2 Luck of the Kitten. He has the preferred running style for this distance (front runner) and has earned the best TimeformUS speed figures. The off odds will likely drift below the 5/2 morning line and for that reason I am taking a shot with #9 Czar. Czar has only one race under his belt, a fast closing third in a maiden race at Ellis Park but he fits one of my favorite angles: the lone closer. He should sit in last early and make one big run late.
Pick 5 Leg C / Pick 4 Leg B
Race 8 - The second stakes of the day is the filly version of the previous race. The most important factor in this race is the presence of trainer Wayne Catalano. He won 10/15 in 2013 for a 67% strike rate. He trains morning line long shot #9 Bella Ranger. With those stats there is no way she goes off at 15/1. More likely she will be under 5/1. Fortunately for multi-race players she is hidden in the middle so all the money she takes will not be visible. In addition to Bella Ranger I'll also include #8 So Cal, #3 Dark Rain, #1 To Be Determined and #6 Emmajestic.
Pick 5 Leg D / Pick 4 Leg C
Race 9 - The feature of opening day is the first running of the Dueling Grounds Derby featuring two horses that will take a ton of money. The favorite is #8 Medal Count and the second choice is #3 Global View. Both have big wins in their past but I do not like either in this spot. The former looks best on polytrack and the latter looks best at shorter distances. Instead I am going with #6 Woodfield Springs who ran a much improved race last time with blinkers on for the first time. I'll also include #2 Can'thelpbelieving and #7 Captain Dixie, both of whom should appreciate the 1 5/16 mile distance.
Pick 5 Leg E / Pick 4 Leg D
Race 10 - The opening day card concludes with a mile and a half maiden race. I am leaning towards the outside with my top selection being #9 Zol Zayne, who ran a good third last time at this distance off a three month layoff. I will also include #8 Northeast Bound and #10 Wall Street Kitten.
